Hello folks, I hope you are all enjoying the American July 4th Independence Day Celebrations! This will be a holiday shortened update but still very important. Get me take of the current market price action below;
• This past week brings the second quarter to a close… The total gains for the second quarter are now 19.95%. That is the best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1998, in which the S&P 500 gained 20.87%, and the second-best quarterly return over the last 30 years…and of the 16 other instances where the quarterly gains in the S&P 500 were over 10%, the market at large continued to rise in 13 of those instances for the next six months with an average gain of 9.02%…and in one of the losing cases (the first half of 2000), the market only fell 1% over the next six months. So, the odds remain good for higher price action over the next year if historical patterns remain the same.
• Although the price action on the major stock indexes has been very bullish lately, risk indicators are still signaling caution. Gold is at a new multiyear high, bond yields are at record lows, and volatility indexes are still well above average for a bull market so extreme caution is still in the air..in fact, I have told our members we can expect a nice drop in the S&P sometime over the July and August timeframes…this in turn will represent a good buying opportunity as we round out the wild 2020 year.
• And this past week’s June Jobs Report is a positive sign with over 7.3 million jobs added over the two prior months…this puts a dent in the 20.5 million lost in April, but 19.3 million are still collecting unemployment benefits and we saw where the SF Fed President Mary Daly said unemployment will probably stay over 10% for the remainder of 2020.
Weekly Market Round-up;
Don’t Be A Rat Brain Trader – Be the Red Stripe Zebra !!
Trade Smart !