Wkly Market Round-Up thru Jan 25th 2019; -What Goes Up ……?

Hey Folks, I hope you are all having a great start to the 2019 Trading Year! Granted, I am sure many of you missed a good deal of the run off the Dec 26th lows for fear of another roll over in price action but those that were able to climb aboard have done very well. Now we have moved up a good deal (over 14% in a short 3 week time span) and markets appear to be resting for the upcoming market data due to hit this week; -and it will be a big week indeed!

Here are my Sound Bites for the week:

• This last week of January will be very busy — on the trade front, a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He sits down with U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer from January 30-31 which will be crucial to avoid the March 1 deadline where Trump talked of further Tax Hikes in imports…also the FOMC is expected to hold the federal funds rate in a target range of 2.25% to 2.50% when it meets on January 29-30…the Fed Fund Futures indicates a 0.5% chance of a rate increase in the meeting next week, a 5.7% chance at the meeting in March, and a 9.4% probability in May and 24.5% odds for a hike in June….this is a complete reversal from what we saw from Powell in Dec….Now that the government shutdown is over for at least a few weeks, economic data should start rolling in again with the Labor Dept scheduled to post the January jobs report on Feb 1, with economists expecting a solid gain of 185K jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%…
• On the Corp Earnings Front we will see Mega-cap tech companies Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Facebook, (NASDAQ:FB), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are all in line to report earnings with the Tech sector having been under pressure over the last few months….however we did see the semiconductor stocks heating up over the last week with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 4.4%…
• And the 2020 US Presidential campaigns are heating up with most of the Dems showing a preference for the “Willie Sutton Tax Plan” a famous bank robber who said, I rob banks ‘cause that’s where the money is! And the Dems want to go after the rich in much the same fashion…so while early in the campaigns, we can expect a good deal of fireworks as all of this heats up…or to quote that Rhodes Scholar, Ocasio-Cortez, the “tippy top” plan….
• I think the real Global Challenge personally is not Global Warming, the China-US Trade Tiff – or even Monetary Policy mistakes from the FEDs/other Central Banks – no, the real challenge are the idiot Rat Brains elected to run our countries, most of them tied down to pandering to their own respective idiot constituencies…so I guess in the long run you could say I would Short the Politicians and Go Long Turmoil! Or Viva Volatility!
• Speaking of Volatility, remember, those of you currently trading VXX need to shut down the trade by Jan 30th and switch over to VXXB…I will work exactly like VXX as it is retired by Barclays since it is a ETN with a limited life.

Now get my take on the current price action in this week’s Weekly Round-Up

Don’t Be a Rat Brain Trader — Trade Smart !!
hpb